Escalation ladder: on Israel’s offensive, and the danger ahead
The U.S. must rein in Israel, and Iran must show restraint 
April 6, 2024

The April 1 attack on an annex of the Iranian embassy in Damascus was a major point of escalation in the multifaceted conflict that has been spreading across West Asia since October 7, 2023. Iran blamed Israel for the strike, in which 13 Iranians, including Mohammed Reza Zahedi, a top commander who was in charge of the Quds Force’s Syria operations, were killed. Israel neither confirms nor denies claims that it was behind such attacks, but it is an open secret that it has been carrying out operations across the region targeting Iranian military and nuclear figures. On December 25, a suspected Israeli strike killed Razi Mousavi, senior adviser in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in Syria. What makes the April 1 attack different from Israel’s past strikes is that an embassy complex was targeted this time. Embassy and other diplomatic premises have a protected status under international law. Even during the Second World War, diplomatic premises were spared by hostile powers. When the Chinese embassy in Belgrade was bombed in May 1999 by the U.S., the then U.S. President Bill Clinton issued a public apology, stating it to be an accident. But in the case of Damascus, the attacker’s precision strike was aimed at killing a group of IRGC figures. Many in Iran see this as an act of war.

Even before the October 7 Hamas attack in Israel, there was a shadow war going on between Israel and Iran in West Asia. After October 7, Israel launched a two-pronged offensive — a full-throttled invasion of Gaza, the tiny Palestinian enclave of 2.3 million people on the one side, and dozens of air strikes in Syria and Lebanon against Iran and its network of militias on the other. Israel sees Iran as the lynchpin of all the non-state militias of the region, be it Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis or the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and seems determined to roll back their influence in its immediate neighbourhood. Israel’s war on Gaza is not proceeding as planned. Six months of fighting has turned Gaza into an open graveyard with a death toll of over 33,000, a majority of them women and children. As Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, under whose watch the October 7 attack unfolded, is coming under increased pressure at home and abroad to cease fire and resign, he appears to be more eager to escalate the regional crisis. This is a dangerous slope. An open war between Israel and Iran, which could drag the U.S. in, would be a security disaster for the whole region and an economic nightmare for the wider world. Iran should not walk into the trap set by Israel. It should show strategic patience and restraint and the U.S., Israel’s most important diplomatic and military supporter, should restrain its closest ally from acting rogue again.

The big fight: on battleground Uttar Pradesh  
U.P. is critical as a battleground at the national level 
April 6, 2024

With 80 Lok Sabha seats, Uttar Pradesh is critical in all political calculations, and more so for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which on its own won 71 seats from the State in 2014 and 62 in 2019. Fronts led by the BJP and the Samajwadi Party (SP) are the principal poles in the elections spread over all seven phases. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) led by four-time U.P. Chief Minister Mayawati is going solo, even as it battles decline. The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is trying to make its presence felt, in alliance with another regional outfit. Several sub-regional outfits that largely draw their support from a single caste group in a confined area are vying for autonomous space in alliances with other parties. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) got a shot in the arm with the induction of the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) which commands a considerable following among the agrarian Jat community in western U.P. that had been agitated against the Centre’s farm laws. The Apna Dal (Sonelal) led by Anupriya Patel, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) led by Om Prakash Rajbhar and Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (NISHAD) party of Sanjay Nishad are other platforms that enable the BJP’s outreach to specific subaltern communities.

The SP and the Congress, which are constituents of the INDIA bloc, have roped in the Mahan Dal led by Keshav Dev Maurya. The outfit enjoys the support of some sections of Other Backward Classes such as Mauryas, Shakyas and Kushwahas in central and eastern Uttar Pradesh. The broader rainbow coalition that the SP formed with multiple sub-regional parties in the 2022 Assembly polls is missing this time and two of its former allies, the SBSP and the RLD, have crossed over to the NDA. One faction of the Apna Dal is in alliance with the AIMIM. This front and the SP-Congress axis are both pivoting around a social coalition of backwards, Dalits and Muslims to counter the Hindutva consolidation behind the BJP, but similar efforts in the recent past have been largely ineffective. The BSP is staring at a dead end, with its leaders joining other parties, and its social base massively eroded. Despite the consolidation that the BJP has achieved in the last decade, U.P. politics remains fragmented along caste, religious and regional fault lines. The State also happens to be home to the most strident form of BJP politics and the party expects to make gains from the opening of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, and win more seats in the State than it did in 2019. The Opposition needs to win a substantial number of seats in U.P. to be viable as an alternative at the national level.

Top Question: Today’s Current Affairs Analyzed by The Hindu (April 6)

Q.Why is the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus significant?
Answer: The attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus is significant because it involved the targeting of an embassy complex, which has a protected status under international law. Such actions can be seen as acts of war and have serious implications for diplomacy and international relations.

Question, Who is responsible for the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus?
Answer: Israel is widely believed to be behind the attack, although they do not confirm or deny involvement in such incidents. However, Israel has carried out numerous strikes in the region targeting Iranian military and nuclear figures.

Question, How has Israel’s relationship with Iran changed recently?
Answer: Israel views Iran as the lynchpin of various non-state militias in the region and has taken steps to roll back their influence in neighboring countries. This has resulted in a shadow war between Israel and Iran, which has escalated further after a recent attack by Hamas in Israel.

Question, What is the current situation in Uttar Pradesh, India, regarding the upcoming elections?
Answer: Uttar Pradesh is a crucial state in India with 80 Lok Sabha seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) are the main contenders in the election, while the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is facing declining popularity. Smaller regional parties like the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), Apna Dal (Sonelal), Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), and Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (NISHAD) are also contesting the election.

Question, What is the significance of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA)’s induction of the RLD?
Answer: The inclusion of the RLD gives the BJP access to a considerable following among the agrarian Jat community in western Uttar Pradesh, which may help the party secure more votes.

Question, What are the challenges faced by the opposition parties in Uttar Pradesh?
Answer: The opposition faces several challenges, including the consolidation of Hindutva supporters behind the BJP, the fragmentation of Uttar Pradesh politics along caste, religious, and regional lines, and the need to appeal to a broad social coalition of backwards, Dalits, and Muslims to counter the BJP.